JP Morgan hedge fund assets have rocketed 66% in a record half year, propelling it to the top spot in the sector, as the largest US firms benefited from an unprecedented wave of inflows on the cusp of the credit squeeze.
JP Morgan’s Highbridge Capital Management helped boost the bank’s assets under management to $56.2bn (€40.6bn) in the first half of the year, compared to $34bn for all of last year, according to a survey by industry publication Absolute Return.
Goldman Sachs Asset Management followed with a 23% jump as of June 29 to almost $40bn.
Och-Ziff, which has been preparing for a flotation, overtook Renaissance and Farallon to seize fifth place. The hedge fund's assets leaped 39% to $29.2bn, boosted by new capital investment. The increase was consistent with the dramatic 40% average annual growth in the hedge fund manager's assets.
Hedge fund inflows for the first half of the year rose 23% to $273bn, over the same period in 2006, the survey said.
The 246 largest hedge fund firms managed combined assets of $1.45 trillion as of July 1, according to the report. Consultants say the focus on building asset growth reflects a trend by managers who see it as the way to maintain or increase their fee income and offset a fall in investment returns over the long term, while stabilising their earnings.
In the first half of the year, hedge funds milked the market by opening up funds to new capital, even those that had been closed for years, a fund of hedge fund managers told Financial News in July.
Tudor Investment Corporation reopened funds for the first time in years in July, and cut the length of time that investors were required to stay in the fund from two years to three months.
Separately, two hedge fund indices were down in August across several strategies, indicating the toll of illiquidity on the credit market. Hedge funds lost 1.31% in August with declines across emerging market, high yield and macro strategies, according to Hedge Fund Research.
Hennessee Group, an adviser to hedge fund investors, said the Hennessee Hedge Fund Index suffered a 0.72% decline in August, although it remains 8% up for the year to date.
The Hennessee Global/Macro Index showed the most dramatic drop with a 1.87% decline in August, despite being up 9.2% for the year to date, and concluded that risk aversion had spread internationally, particularly in Asia.
The Hennessee Long/Short Index was up nearly 1% in August continuing 8.2% growth for the year to date, making it the one marginal bright spot in an otherwise challenging month.
Lee Hennessee, Hennessee Group managing principal, said: "It was generally a sub-par month for hedge funds, although losses were not nearly as heavy as many had speculated."
Source: efinancialnews.com
Friday, September 14, 2007
JP Morgan hedge fund assets soar 66% in half-year
Fears remain over Citi loan exposure
Analysts have expressed concern over the scale of Citi’s exposure to leveraged loans after they met with the bank’s head of risk management.
Citi is among a number of banks committed to provide financing for some leveraged buyouts that are facing resistance from investors but it has greater exposure than its rivals.
The claim was made in a research note by JP Morgan Chase analyst Vivek Juneja reported by MarketWatch.
Juneja said: “LBO lending uncertainty remains regarding size of mark to market hit. It is disappointing to see Citi well above peers in pending deals."
If banks cannot sell on leveraged loans in the market, they have to keep them on their balance sheets as so-called "hung loans". Such holdings may have a lower value than if they had been successfully sold.
Citi has retained a bullish stance on LBO financing despite warnings that it could face a $1bn (€740m) write-down of third-quarter profits due to the credit market turmoil. The bank is pushing ahead with lead-underwriting part of the multi-billion dollar debt financing behind the buyouts of Canadian telecoms firm BCE and US chemicals group Lyondell.
In July, Citi’s chairman and chief executive Chuck Prince, chairman and chief executive, was criticised for saying Citi was "still dancing" in the credit markets.
The scale of banks’ exposure to leveraged loans will become clearer next week when the third quarter reporting season for US banks kicks off.
Latest Cash Infusion May Calm Europe's Banks
With European banks stockpiling cash and wary of lending to each other for periods longer than a week, the European Central Bank pumped €75 billion, or about $104 billion, in three-month credit into money markets yesterday in another effort to bring dealings back to normal.
The extra longer-term funding, the second such maneuver in nearly three weeks, was in addition to the ECB's routine injections of three-month funds and contrasted with the shorter-term funds the ECB has also been providing to the market.
The operation was exactly what European commercial banks say they have been seeking in discussions with the ECB over the past week or so. Like most central banks, the ECB is in constant contact with commercial banks.
Still, three-month euro interbank offered interest rates continue hovering around 4.75%, their highest levels since May 2001 and well above the ECB's target lending rate for overnight funds of 4%. Usually, the gap is smaller.
The tensions in European money markets reflect a confluence of forces. One is concern among European banks that other banks still have undisclosed exposure to the U.S. subprime-mortgage market. Another is the eagerness of European banks to hoard cash for various reasons.
ECB policy makers have been laboring to help unnerved money markets function normally. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet last Thursday said the bank would make additional three-month money available, just as it did on Aug. 23 when it injected an extra €40 billion. But the ECB didn't indicate an amount until it acted yesterday.
The ECB's action comes at a crucial time. Corporate IOUs called commercial paper have been central to the credit turmoil. Some $139 billion in euro commercial paper started maturing earlier this week and will continue to do so in coming days, so banks have been scrambling for cash and pushing up rates in the interbank-lending market. Banks told the ECB that three-month funds would enable them to put the money to use for a longer period of time, according to a person familiar with the situation.
Commercial-paper traders believe it will be another four to six weeks before investors reappear at full strength. But there already are some signs of a modest recovery. Yesterday, $24.85 billion of euro commercial paper was issued, more than offsetting the $21 billion that matured. There also are indications that money-market investors have forsaken some overnight deposits for higher-yielding one-month and three-month paper.
Adding to the crunch, banks have been stockpiling cash to cover financial backstops required by affiliates known as conduits that haven't been able to renew maturing commercial paper. These conduits typically issue short-term commercial paper to buy higher-yielding, longer-maturing assets such as securities backed by U.S. mortgages. Another factor sapping cash are moves by banks to step in and pay off large chunks of the maturing commercial paper issued by their affiliates.
Many believe the ECB's ability to resolve the fundamental distrust infecting European markets is limited. The perception, right or not, is that the finances of European banks are less sound than those of their U.S. counterparts and that the unregulated European vehicles affiliated with banks that have undisclosed exposure to U.S. subprime mortgages are less well-managed than those in the U.S.
Many of the complex securities at the heart of the current crisis aren't traded on exchanges. That makes them difficult to value and -- policy makers say -- is helping spur a broader-based risk aversion.
Some banks have begun giving some indications of the impact the credit turmoil has had on business. Deutsche Bank AG last week said it affected its leveraged-loan business, but said the bank isn't likely to take further hits from the U.S. subprime market.
Source: The Wall Street Journal Online
Hong Kong Shares Close at Record High
Hong Kong Shares Rise to Second Straight Record Close, Led by Property Stocks
Hong Kong shares rose to a second straight record close Thursday, boosted by property stocks on expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut next week.
The blue chip Hang Seng index rose 226.88 points, or 0.9 percent, to 24,537.02.
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But analysts said the benchmark index is unlikely to rise much further, and predicted profit-taking in the near-term.
Blue chip property developers outperformed the broad market Thursday, with Wharf Holdings adding 6.9 percent. Henderson Land rose 4 percent while Sino Land ended 4.2 percent higher.
Sun Hung Kai Properties finished 2.3 percent higher ahead of its fiscal full-year result announcement which was due after market closed.
"They (property stocks) are not attractive anymore. Profit-taking is very likely to set in very soon," said Castor Pang, a strategist at Sun Hung Kai & Research Ltd.
UBS AG said in a research report that Hong Kong developer stocks are still attractive compared with their counterparts in Singapore in terms of valuation, citing "the high correlation between Hibor (Hong Kong interbank offered rate) and the U.S. Fed funds rate."
A U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting is scheduled on Tuesday, when market watchers widely expect it to lower rates for the first time since June 2003. Hong Kong rates tend to follow U.S. rates because the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the dollar.
PetroChina ended 0.4 percent lower at HK$11.32, after falling as much as 2.6 percent earlier in the session. The stock fell after U.S. investor Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its stake in China's largest listed oil and gas producer to 9.72 percent from 10.16 percent at HK$11.47 apiece.
Chalco finished 8.5 percent lower at HK$18.66, after Alcoa sold its entire 8-percent stake in the world's second-largest alumina producer and a 10-percent cut in spot alumina price.
Turnover totaled HK$109.21 billion ($14 billion), up from HK$97.48 billion
HONG KONG (AP)
Oil stocks led FTSE rebound
London equities staged a turn-around and reversed early losses in early afternoon as oil stocks surged ahead after crude oil price hit a record-high.
The FTSE 100 was 0.7 per cent higher at 6,349.1, a gain of 42.7 points. However, the FTSE 250 remained in the red, falling 0.5 per cent, or 57.3 points to 11,162.4 as mid-cap investment companies continued to fall amid tense credit conditions.
Oil continued to trade within touching distance of the $80 per barrel mark. Nymex October West Texas Intermediate fell 17 cents to $79.74 after hitting a record $80.18 a barrel in the previous session.
Oil stocks rallied at mid-session and helped protect the market from steeper losses. Royal Dutch Shell extended earlier gains, jumping 1.3 per cent to £20.26. BP rose 1 per cent to 573p, while Cairn Energy was up 0.9 per cent at £19.03.
Other resource stocks also found support due to bullish commodity prices. Lonmin put on 2.4 per cent to £33.84 whilst Anglo American rose 2.5 per cent to £28.87. Antofagasta rose 1.7 per cent to 709½p, Kazakhmys jumped 1.6 per cent to £13.38, and Rio Tinto was 1.3 per cent firmer at £37.13.
But the biggest single riser of the day was Cable & Wireless, 4.1 per cent at 174p, after Cazenove upgraded its rating on the stock to "outperform" from "in-line".
Financial stocks continued their torrid run on lingering uncertainty about the health of global credit markets. There were also mixed expectations at the action central banks might take to address the ongoing crisis.
The Bank of England offered an additional £4.4bn in cash to commercial banks on Thursday morning, in an effort to normalise the money markets. In offering an additional 25 per cent extra cash in return for high-quality assets, the Bank hopes to flood the market with sterling and bring overnight interest rates back down towards the official rate of 5.75 per cent.
Banks and financial stocks, however, continued to trade lower as the lingering credit squeeze once more unnerved investors. Northern Rock, the high street bank most exposed to the wholesale credit markets to raise funds for lending, lost 3.7 per cent to 647p. Fellow mortgage lender Alliance & Leicester fell 2.6 per cent to 938½p.
Elsewhere, Icap dropped 0.8 per cent to 480p, Royal Bank of Scotland eased 0.7 per cent to 537½p and Barclays (NYSE:BCS) lost 0.3 per cent to 606½p.
Scottish & Newcastle was the biggest faller among blue chips, losing 0.7 per cent to 610p after fading hopes for a bid from Carlsberg prompted Merrill Lynch to cut its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "buy".
ITV shed 2.8 per cent to 108p after Goldman Sachs removed the commercial broadcaster from its "conviction buy list". ITV suffered a 6 per cent fall in net advertising revenue at its core commercial channel during the previous session.BAE SystemsLondon Stock Exchange shelved plans
Source:FT.com
Quicksilver Jumps 5 Percent After Sale
Shares of Quicksilver Resources Inc. jumped an additional 5 percent Thursday, one day after the energy exploration and production company said it was selling off its Midwest natural gas and oil assets.
The company said early Wednesday it would sell assets in Michigan, Indiana and Kentucky for nearly $1.44 billion in cash and a 31.9 percent stake in BreitBurn Energy Partners LP. The stock rose 3.2 percent to close at $44.39 after the announcement.
On Thursday, the stock extended its rally amid plaudits from Wall Street analysts. Jefferies & Co.'s Subash Chandra praised the deal's "perfect execution," while Canaccord Adams analyst Irene Haas said the "impact is very positive."
"Overall, we view the transaction as positive for KWK as it should allow them to aggressively develop its higher growth/higher return Barnett Shale drilling inventory, while eliminating investor concerns that Quicksilver will have to issue equity to fund its Barnett program," Banc of America Securities analyst Michael Schmitz wrote in a client note.
Quicksilver extracts natural gas from the Barnett Shale formation of the Fort Worth Basin in north Texas.
Lehman Brothers analyst Jeffrey Robertson raised his price target on the stock to $56 from $54.
"Proceeds from the sale of KWK's Michigan, Kentucky, and Indiana properties along with capacity under the credit facility could provide ample liquidity to fund the Barnett Shale drilling program which is expected to drive strong volume and reserve growth over the next several years," he wrote.
Capital One Southcoast and Deutsche Bank analysts also boosted their price targets, to $53 and $57, respectively.
By midday, the stock had added $2.28, or 5.1 percent, to trade at $46.67.
NEW YORK (AP)
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Get 25,000 Points (Redeemable For $250) With Bank Of America Rewards Card Or Amex Business Gold Card
I posted this at FWF, and I don't post much over here, but I figured some people here might be interested in getting a credit card for an easy $250
Link
I don't know if any other "University" cards are getting this good of a deal, but I received this via e-mail, and it doesn't appear targeted as to who can apply.
The gist of the offer is 25,000 Rewards points which can be redeemed for $250 Cash... which for a BOA card, and for only requirement for getting the points is spending $250 on the card. Seems like a pretty sweet deal... And even better for those Iowa Hawkeye fans!!!
The BT offer is not capped, so thats not hot at all...
https://wwwn.applyonlinenow.com/u...index.html
You will click on either one of the credit cards, and the 25,000 point offer will appeer.
Here is what the e-mail said...
Apply for the Iowa Rewards credit card and receive 25,000 points!
after qualifying transaction(s) §
Apply Today!
and receive 25,000 points after qualifying transaction(s)
A VIP tour of Kinnick Stadium, the opportunity to travel with the Hawkeye football team to a bowl game, an Iowa game-used football jersey--you can earn these and other great rewards with the University of Iowa's new Iowa Rewards credit card. After your first qualifying transaction(s), you'll receive 25,000 points that you can redeem for $250 in cash, an airline ticket or one of many Iowa Rewards. Or, save up your points to sit in the radio broadcast booth during a game or get passes to see a game from a suite! This offer is only available for a limited time so apply now!
Earn 1 point for every $1 in net retail purchases towards travel, hotel accommodations, merchandise, cash and more§
0% Introductory APR on balance transfers and cash advance checks for your first 12 billing cycles (subject to a 3% transaction fee, no less than $10)
No Annual Fee+
Developed in partnership with Bank of America, the Iowa Rewards program allows cardholders to redeem points for exclusive UI-related experiences and memorabilia. Plus, you have the chance to earn air travel, gift certificates, and even cash rewards offered through Bank of America's WorldPoints® program.
With Iowa Rewards, you earn one point for every net retail dollar spent; there's no annual fee and no limit on the number of points you can earn. If you don't carry a UI credit card or have a non-rewards UI card, you can apply at 1-866-438-6262 (be sure to mention priority code FABHTN if you'd like the Tigerhawk card or FABHPD if you'd like to receive the card featuring the Old Capitol.)
Apply today to relive your UI experience through Iowa Rewards.
Thanks again for your continued support of the University of Iowa!
On, Iowa and Go, Hawks!
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
It's Your Money: News Moves Markets
What's good for the consumer isn't always good for the company. Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) investors learned that on Wednesday, when their shares fell by 5 percent after the company announced an exciting lineup of new products, enhanced features, and lower prices.
Refreshed iPods and cheaper iPhones probably sound pretty good to you. However, there is a disconnect between consumer and corporate circles sometimes. Good news to one is often bad news to the other.
You see it everywhere. Airfares go up? Travelers don't like it, but the carriers do. Flat panel television prices go down? Couch potatoes love it, but the cutthroat manufacturers are left licking their wounds.
In a nutshell, news moves markets, but it's often a case of different forces tugging in different directions. As investors, it is important to know the difference. Apple's story is pretty well-known, so allow me to dig deeper into the story to illustrate the point even further.
Apple investors were reacting to several different assumptions. Clearly, lowering iPhone prices from $599 to $399 is a near-term margin hit for Apple. The phone didn't get 33 percent cheaper to make since it was introduced less than three months ago. However, investors take that morsel of news and flesh it out even further.
Why is Apple even cutting prices? Weren't folks camping out in sleeping bags to be the first ones to own an iPhone back in June? Yes, but cell phones are tricky. Most wireless phone users are tied to two-year contracts -- it's part of landing sweet deals on carrier-subsidized handsets -- so even a diehard Machead could still be several quarters away from migrating to an iPhone.
Apple announced that it would ship out its millionth iPhone by the end of the month. It's a healthy milestone, but coupled with the price cut leads cynical investors to wonder how many have been sold so far.
So Apple's stock got hit, of course. Then we have shares of AT&T (NYSE: T), the exclusive provider of iPhone wireless service. Surely the company behind AT&T/Cingular would take a hit given the bleak outlook, right? Well, yes and no. AT&T's stock fell, but it was just a 1 percent dip.
One reason for the smaller decline is that AT&T is a huge telecommunications company that isn't necessarily riding on the feast or famine of the iPhone. However, the price hit wouldn't have been much different if AT&T was all about the iPhone. Sure, Apple slashing prices hints at a slow adoption rate. However, with Apple willing to take a $200 hardware hit, the number of AT&T iPhone subscribers should pick up dramatically in the coming weeks.
We can take the Apple story one day later. As you might imagine, the original iPhone users weren't happy about the sharp price cut. Early adopters buy into new gadgets knowing that time will make them cheaper, but this all happened over the course of the summer season.
On Thursday night, Apple went ahead and apologized for the oversight. It would give many of the earlier buyers a $100 credit. Great news for consumers? Sure, but Apple's stock took a hit on the assumption that it will have to shell out between $20 million to $50 million to make things right.
Consumers? Happy.
Shareholders? Not so happy.
So, yes, news moves the market. Knowing it happens isn't enough. As an investor, you need to know why it's happening.
By Rick Munarriz
Branching out
A bookshop? A yoga studio? No: your local bank. And it is out to get you
WALKING into one of Umpqua's many “stores” is a strange, if pleasurable, experience. There are plush chairs where you can sip free Umpqua-branded coffee, a shop peddling books and music, computer terminals to surf the internet and, often, a yoga class. The smiling employees—all trained by Ritz Carlton, a luxury hotel chain—drop a chocolate onto a silver tray with customer receipts. That Umpqua is a bank comes as a surprise. But a retail bank Umpqua is—small and fast growing, with 144 branches in western America, up from only five 12 years ago.
Umpqua's approach may seem whimsical but it was the result of careful study over a decade ago when Ray Davis, its chief executive, noted a shift in people's relationship with their bank. The cornerstone of local banking had been dealing with simple transactions—depositing cheques and helping customers. But the advent of ATMs and call centres was sucking activity out of the branch. “How do you keep the branch relevant when customers increasingly do not need to walk through its doors?” Mr Davis asked.
The question was prescient. Today, the popularity of internet banking means even fewer transactions are done at the counter. According to Celent, a consultancy, 40% of American households bank online, almost twice the proportion that did in 2002. TowerGroup, a research outfit, reckons that by 2010 most transactions will have migrated online.
Such a switch looks all the more likely because of the successful “direct banks” that have been launched in the past couple of years by Citigroup, HSBC and non-bank firms such as Charles Schwab, an online broker. These online businesses have begun attracting not just savings accounts but checking accounts, too—the most profitable balances at the branch.
The shift away from cheques to plastic and digital payments has also played a role. Traditionally, processing cheques accounted for around two-thirds of a teller's job, says TowerGroup. Even making loans has become automated at some banks, such as Spain's BBVA, which allows certain customers to withdraw pre-approved loans from an ATM without ever speaking to a credit officer.
None of this means that the branch is dead. Indeed, small businesses still make frequent use of bank branches, as do individuals seeking sophisticated products. But all the business now done outside a bank's four walls means the role of the branch must change. That is especially important for banks that have greatly expanded their branch networks in recent years, at no small expense.
Those that do may have history on their side. Mike Redding of Accenture, a consultancy, notes that in Scandinavia in the 1990s, big banks closed down swathes of branches and pushed customers online, expecting cost savings. Instead, the banks lost lots of customers, their revenues stalled and they ended up back-pedalling. “The branch matters,” says Mr Redding.
Fat fees, low-fat ice cream
Umpqua's style of business is further removed than most from the normal ways of retail branch banking. Tellers have been replaced by generalists (called “universal associates”) who are paid largely on sales commissions—rare in banking. Each branch has in its budget some cash that every quarter must be spent on customers—a bouquet of flowers for a sick customer, perhaps, or ice cream on a hot day.
Indirectly the customer pays for such service, of course—Umpqua's fees are not cheap. But Mr Davis believes clients see it as a worthwhile expense. “In the digital age, where everything from books to banking has become commoditised, you have to compete on more than price.”
Umpqua is one of a few banks that woo customers by selling non-financial products as well. Another pioneer in this field is BBVA, which flogs a wide array of wares—from houses to cars to health care—in a few branches. BBVA believes it can wield its vast financial firepower (it is Spain's second-largest bank by assets) to buy products more cheaply than consumers could and distribute them through its branches at a profit. Customers could use BBVA to finance their purchases.
This is still being tested but executives have high expectations. “It is absurd to think that a branch can be very profitable without pushing more products and services through it,” says BBVA's José Olalla. Selling stuff is also a way to draw new customers in, he hopes.
Along the same lines, BBVA is rolling out the “Duo branch”, which makes its assets sweat even harder. In mid-afternoon, when banks usually close in Spain, the branch is transformed at the flick of a switch (and with the clever use of curtains) into an outlet targeted at immigrants, offering cheap telephone calls home, remittance services, legal advice and the like. The idea is that eventually the new arrivals to Spain will become bank customers. But in the meantime, its main clients are given no indication about the branch's moonlighting activities.
Other banks, perhaps not as ambitiously, are finding new ways to bring life back into the branch. They include investments in technology to free staff from mundane activities so they can concentrate on selling new services to customers. The newest Bank of America branches use palm-identification software to give customers access to security-deposit boxes without the assistance of an employee. As part of a £400m ($800m) refurbishment project in Britain, HSBC is building branches with a clearly demarcated “self service” section. Much of the rest of the branch is given over to serving well-heeled customers. “You want to use your most expensive overhead—the branch—for your highest-value transactions and automate the rest,” says Joe Garner of HSBC.
Spain's largest bank, Santander, has gone a step further and rigorously profiles customers to see what new products it can sell them. After online analysis of their earning and spending patterns, it automatically assigns them a credit line—which releases staff to sell new products. “Most big banks are still struggling to do this,” says Jerry Silva of TowerGroup.
Fortunately for them, customers are creatures of habit when it comes to banking—perhaps because they also want their money managed conservatively. The more choice clients have, however, the more likely it is that their habits will change as well.
Jun 14th 2007 | NEW YORK From The Economist
Insiders strike gold. Will investors too?
EVERY good writer of television drama knows the value of keeping the audience hungry for further instalments. So, it would seem, do the men who run Blackstone, a private-equity group that is about to sell a chunk of itself to the public. In the run-up to its eagerly awaited share offering, information about the inner workings of the secretive outfit has been released in tempting dribs and drabs. This might have been unbearable, were it not for a few cathartic coups de théâtre: first the sale of a stake of almost 10% to the Chinese government, and now the disclosure of the vast spoils accruing to Blackstone's leaders.
The mightiest of them, co-founder Steve Schwarzman (pictured), is due to sell stock worth up to $677m, leaving him with a 24% stake valued at almost $8 billion. When Blackstone's shares start trading, perhaps later this month, he will officially overtake Rupert Murdoch and Steve Jobs on rich lists. According to this week's filing, Mr Schwarzman earned $398m last year, almost double the combined pay of the bosses of Wall Street's five largest investment banks. Obscene, some cry. But almost every penny came from gains in investments, rather than salary or bonus. If only all executive pay was so closely tied to performance.
A more reasonable concern is that the hordes clamouring to invest in the offering get caught up in a shocking denouement, as credit tightens and prices of shares fall after they are issued. Signs that the market may be past its prime include rising bond yields and reports of some buy-out shops having to haggle with previously pliant lenders. “Everyone knows this is a cyclical industry,” says Colin Blaydon of the Tuck School of Business's Centre for Private Equity. “Before long, the perfect storm of value creation we've seen over the past couple of years is sure to die down.”
But when it does, it may not be the private-equity houses that feel the most pain. Some of the companies that they own are pretty much default-proof, thanks to the loosening of debt covenants by deal-hungry banks competing to provide loans. It is the ultimate holders of this debt—largely, but not exclusively, hedge funds—which will be hit hardest. Any investment banks with bridge loans or bridge equity on their books that they have failed to syndicate may also suffer.
Moreover, for today's private-equity giants traditional buy-outs are just one of several lines of business. They all have big and burgeoning restructuring arms, which could soon be jostling for distressed assets. Some of their best investments were made in the recession years of 1981, 1991 and 2001, Mr Blaydon points out. Clouds may form over Blackstone's new shareholders, but they should have a silver lining.
Jun 14th 2007 | NEW YORK From The Economist
New Zealand is one of many countries dealing with strong exchange rates
CONFRONTED by a growing army of speculators, on June 11th the Reserve Bank of New Zealand decided enough was enough—and let rip with the peashooter. It intervened in foreign-exchange markets to weaken a currency that had hit its highest level since it was floated in 1985. The bank struck after it had raised its official cash interest rate to a daunting 8% the week before, eager to halt rising inflationary pressures.
It was a well-timed intervention. Japanese savers, earning next-to-nothing in yen, have poured into investments based on higher-yielding currencies, such as New Zealand's. Other investors have also taken advantage of the “carry trade”, enabling them to borrow at low interest rates in yen and reinvest at higher rates overseas. Like almost everyone else, they were caught by surprise and the New Zealand dollar softened.
New Zealand, with the highest interest rates in the industrialised world, is a special case, but it is not alone in feeling the mixed blessings of a currency on steroids. Other countries with non-greenback dollars also have unusually strong exchange rates. Australia's dollar hit its firmest level in 18 years this year, and the Canadian dollar has risen 30% against its American counterpart in the last three years.
There are some common elements fuelling the strength. All have robust economies and respected central bankers. According to Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley, they reap the benefits of being open, developed economies, yet partly thanks to the commodities boom, they enjoy some of the fast-growing attributes of emerging markets. Asian economies have snapped up dairy and wood products from New Zealand and metals from Australia, and have helped raise the prices of Canada's oil and natural gas, boosting export revenues. Cross-border takeovers are also putting upward pressure on currencies. The bidding for Bell Canada, the country's largest phone company, involves groups with both domestic and foreign investors.
A strong currency can be a curse for exporters, however. In New Zealand's case, the carry trade has given the kiwi dollar an extra upward push. With the yen nearing five-year lows against the American dollar this week, such trades may well continue.
As rising interest rates in some countries exacerbate the differences between high-yielding currencies and low-yielding ones, such as Japan's, New Zealand's predicament may become more familiar. Most nations with strong currencies should refrain from following its lead. After all, peashooters are of little use against a determined foe.
Jun 14th 2007 From The Economist
Not so risk-free
Rising bond yields could spell trouble for the economy and the markets
GOVERNMENT bond markets are supposed to be the accountants of the financial world: calm, steady and rational. They are not supposed to frighten the horses. But in the days following June 7th, bond investors had a traumatic experience. The yield on the ten-year Treasury bond rose from 4.96% that day to reach 5.33% during trading on June 13th before closing just below 5.2%.
What makes the slump in bond prices all the odder is that Treasury bonds are normally regarded as the risk-free asset, the one that investors buy when they are really worried. What could have prompted the sell-off?
One thing that could cause investors to flee government bonds would be an unexpected rise in inflation. Higher inflation devastates the value of fixed-income assets, as investors found to their cost in the 1970s. But this does not look like an inflation scare. Real yields have caused the vast bulk of the move; inflation expectations have moved up by only around a tenth of a percentage point. And gold, the classic inflation hedge, has fallen in price.
Investors may well have decided that American growth will be stronger than they had previously expected. But, in the absence of inflation, faster growth need not be bad for government bonds; higher tax revenues will make it easier for the government to service the debt. Alternatively, unexpectedly strong growth ought to be good news for equities, yet the stockmarket has also fluctuated wildly.
Another potential explanation is that the markets have given up on rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year. But the futures market suggests this hope has been dwindling for some time. Global monetary policy is generally being tightened (see article). However, this should not necessarily be bad news for long-dated bonds, if investors believe (as they seem to) that central banks will be successful in containing inflation.
This suggests that economic fundamentals may not be the primary cause for the sell-off. Big market moves like this tend to occur when investors shift their positions in a hurry. In this case, it looks as if some bond bulls decided to throw in the towel. Figures from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Chicago regulator, suggest that, before the sell-off, speculators were betting heavily on lower yields. One of the most prominent bond bulls, Bill Gross of Pimco, an investment-management firm, has just publicly changed his mind.
The hedging policies of mortgage issuers may also have played a part. Because most Americans have fixed-rate mortgages, issuers find they tend to get repaid early when bond yields fall; they hedge this risk by buying Treasury bonds. When rates rise, borrowers are far less likely to repay; that causes mortgage issuers to sell their bonds. The effect can be to exacerbate short-term moves in bond prices.
The big question, however, is whether Asian central banks have lost their appetite for American Treasuries. Part of the reason for the rise in yields was a disappointing auction of ten-year bonds, with foreign investors buying just 11% of the issue. Asian central banks had been buying Treasury bonds with their foreign-exchange reserves in an attempt to prevent their currencies from appreciating too rapidly against the dollar. Some analysts have estimated that these purchases had pushed bond yields between a half and a full percentage point below the level they would otherwise have reached.
The result was that yield curves were “inverted”—long yields were below short-term rates. When he was Fed chairman, Alan Greenspan described this state of affairs as a “conundrum”: such curves had traditionally been a harbinger of recession, but perhaps Asian central bank policies meant this signal was no longer valid.
Asian central banks may now be turning their attention to other assets. The establishment of China's sovereign-wealth fund and its purchase of a stake in Blackstone, a private-equity group, indicate that the Beijing regime may be looking for more exciting returns. Still, if this move is all about the Asian central banks shifting their reserves away from American bonds, it is odd that it has been accompanied by a rise in the dollar against the euro and the yen. True, Blackstone's shares will be denominated in dollars, but it is hard to see a change in reserve policy that would increase the appetite for dollar assets.
Whoever has been selling Treasury bonds, the result is that the conundrum has disappeared; yield curves are now sloping upwards. Sometimes a steepening of the curve can be benign, when central banks cut rates to try to stimulate the economy. But Richard McGuire of RBC Capital Markets points out that this is a “bear-market steepening”, caused by bond yields rising faster than short rates.
A higher risk-free rate will eventually raise the financing costs for everyone, from American homeowners fixing their mortgages, through hedge funds using leverage, to private-equity groups planning bids for quoted companies. It should also bear down (eventually) on economic growth.
This means that, provided that inflation is not getting out of control, higher bond yields will eventually sow the seeds of their own destruction. Slower growth and a loss of appetite for riskier assets will make government bonds look more attractive once more. But with analysts talking about yields breaking out of a 17-year downtrend (see chart), that might not happen for a while.
Jun 14th 2007 From The Economist